基于非线性Kalman滤波的导航系统误差补偿技术

针对非线性非高斯导航系统信息处理问题,采用自组织算法、神经网络和遗传算法等改进传统非线性Kalman滤波算法,构建一种自适应的组合导航系统。应用具有冗余趋势项的自组织算法、Volterra神经网络和遗传算法,建立导航系统误差的非线性预测模型,进而计算得到其预测值;将该预测值与Kalman滤波算法求得的估计值进行比较得到差值,以此监测Kalman滤波算法的工作状态;采用自适应控制方法,在导航系统结构层面改进Kalman滤波算法,构建新型的导航系统误差补偿模型。开展基于导航系统KIND-34的半实物仿真研究,应用所提出的改进方法改善了导航系统误差的补偿效果,提高了组合导航系统的自适应能力和容错能力。     

Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory (PT). We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database. Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. PT orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of ‘trigger points’ and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method.     

United Nations rapid reaction mechanisms: Toward a global force on standby?

This article analyses the main challenges and future prospects of creating United Nations (UN) rapid reaction mechanisms, particularly in the light of past attempts and current discussions about a “UN Vanguard Force” in the wake of the High-Level Panel on Peace Operations report. The article reviews major initiatives (in particular lessons from the Standby High Readiness Brigade for UN Operations) and assesses the main achievements, failures, and challenges related to past UN-led rapid reaction mechanisms. In line with the overall aim of this special forum, the article highlights the future potentials and institutional, operational, financial, and political challenges that need to be overcome in order to design and create a pragmatic and effective rapid reaction tool at the disposal of the UN.     

Remotely Piloted Aircraft,Risk, and Killing as Sacrifice: The Cost of Remote Warfare

In this paper I argue that a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) pilot’s act of killing remotely, when it is done in the defense of another person, can be viewed as an act of sacrifice. This argument concludes from two premises. First, the RPA pilot faces psychological risk to self by carrying out such an action; second, the RPA pilot is motivated to some significant degree by something other than self-interest. Moreover, I challenge both the view that RPA represent merely an incremental development in technology yielding an incremental expansion of the distance between the war-fighter and the target and the view that RPA is revolutionary in some fundamental sense. I instead argue that, based upon the natural geometric boundary imposed by the earth’s shape, RPA have maximized the physical distance between the war-fighter and the target and, over time, this fact will change, not only the psychological effects on the RPA pilot, but also the way we view killing and distance in general. When taken together, these two broad claims, that other-defense can justify killing in war and that there is a psychological cost paid by remote killers, yield a conception of remote killing as an act of sacrifice that will inform the broader conversation about ethics, risk, killing, and RPA.     

Jacques Maritain: Christian Theorist of Non-Violence and Just War

Jacques Maritain (1882–1973) is widely recognized as one of the foremost Catholic philosophers of modern times. He wrote groundbreaking works in all branches of philosophy. For a period of about 10 years, beginning in 1933, he discussed matters relating to war and ethics. Writing initially about Gandhi, whose strategy of non-violence he sought to incorporate within a Christian conception of political action, Maritain proceeded to comment more specifically on the religious aspects of armed force in “On Holy War,” an essay about the civil war then ongoing in Spain (1936–1939). After the outbreak of World War II in September 1939, Maritain penned a series of essays that sought to explain why the Anglo–French declarations of war were warranted on Christian just war principles. While the secondary literature on Maritain’s thought is extensive, thus far there has been little systematic exploration of his writings on war. In what follows I seek to remedy this lacuna, by examining how he conceptualized just war in the three phases outlined above.     

Reassessing Military Assistance to the Civil Powers: Are Traditional British Anti-Terrorist Responses Still Effective?

The provision of Military Assistance to the Civil Powers (MACP) encapsulates the traditional approach towards countering terrorism on the British mainland, which emphasises minimum force, proportionality, police primacy and the rule of law, with the military retained as a supporting instrument, being employed only as a measure of last resort. Recent terrorist incidents in major urban centres do, however, question the effectiveness of these established methods. This analysis initially codifies the conceptual issues that underscore the tensions between civil policing and military anti-terrorist approaches in the UK, and proceeds to evaluate and compare a number of operations that indicate the nature of the challenges facing the MACP apparatus. In particular, potential shortcomings in the MACP provisions are identified in the form of threat perception and deployment and enforcement gaps. The assessment finds that there are facets of MACP that are of enduring relevance in the current era, yet a continuing need persists to reconcile police and military imperatives toward serious civil disorder contingencies and conditions of emergency.     

Stochastic modeling for computational warranty analysis

We examine two key stochastic processes of interest for warranty modeling: (1) remaining total warranty coverage time exposure and (2) warranty load (total items under warranty at time t). Integral equations suitable for numerical computation are developed to yield probability law for these warranty measures. These two warranty measures permit warranty managers to better understand time‐dependent warranty behavior, and thus better manage warranty cash reserves. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

A continuous‐time strategic capacity planning model

Capacity planning decisions affect a significant portion of future revenue. In the semiconductor industry, they need to be made in the presence of both highly volatile demand and long capacity installation lead‐times. In contrast to traditional discrete‐time models, we present a continuous‐time stochastic programming model for multiple resource types and product families. We show how this approach can solve capacity planning problems of reasonable size and complexity with provable efficiency. This is achieved by an application of the divide‐and‐conquer algorithm, convexity, submodularity, and the open‐pit mining problem. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.